Commodity ResearchGoldgenerated on 28 September 2026

Research report for informational purposes only — not investment advice.

Commoditiesgenerated Sep 28, 2026 10:41 UTC

GoldGCUSD

Commodities

Commodity score46

out of 100

Last price4,191

-3.01% on the day

90-day trendDowntrend

29% up the 90-day range

RSI (14)33.73

Mid-range

ADX (14)16.25

No clear trend

US Dollar Index100.88

Strengthening

Commercial net position-262,903

reducing

GCUSD — Gold prices have declined recently, trading below the 200-day moving average amid a stronger U.S. dollar and rising Treasury yields.

confidencedata as of Sep 28, 2026 00:00 UTC

AdxNo clear trendRsiMid rangeDollarStrengtheningTrend 90dDowntrendPrice vs ema200Below

Gold is priced at $4191, down 3.01% on the day and positioned near the lower end of its 90-day range between $3955.4 and $4755. The 90-day trend is downward with a 7.28% decline over this period. The 1-year price change is a modest 2.36%, with the current price near the 14th percentile of the yearly range.

Metric	Value
Last price	4,191
Change on the day (%)	-3.01
90-day high	4,755
90-day low	3,955.40
Position in the 90-day range (%)	29
90-day trend	downtrend
Volume	97,152

The last price sits 29% of the way up the 90-day range (3955.4 to 4755), which is the input the price component of the score uses.
Price action contributed 2.5 points of the 46 total.

Gold is below its 200-day EMA of 4373.29, with an RSI of 33.73 indicating neither oversold nor overbought conditions. The ADX at 16.25 suggests a lack of a strong trend, while the minus DI exceeds the plus DI, consistent with the recent downtrend.

Metric	Value	Reading
RSI (14)	33.73	Mid-range
ADX (14)	16.25	No clear trend
EMA (200)	4,373.29	Below
90-day trend	downtrend	—

RSI above 70 reads as stretched and below 30 as washed out; ADX above 25 says a trend has force behind it, below that it does not.
Momentum contributed 6.7 points.

The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) has strengthened by 1.74% over the past 20 sessions to 100.88. Gold prices tend to decrease when the dollar is stronger.

Metric	Value
US Dollar Index	100.88
Change on the day (%)	1.74
Dollar trend	Strengthening

Commodities are priced in dollars, and the dollar has been softer.
The dollar contributed 1 points.

As of the September 22 report, commercial hedgers hold a net short position of 262,903 contracts, near the lower end of their 3-year range, while speculators maintain a net long position of 225,853 contracts, near the upper end of their range. On the week, commercial positions decreased by 1,182 contracts, and speculators reduced their net long exposure by 4,485 contracts. Open interest increased by 2,901 contracts, indicating growing market participation.

Group	Long	Short	Net	Net % of OI	Weekly flow	Week on week
Commercial hedgers	57,458	320,361	-262,903	-63.69	-1,182	reducing
Large speculators	253,982	28,129	225,853	54.71	-4,485	reducing
Retail / non-reportable	—	—	37,050	8.98	—	—

As published by the source

Commercial sentiment: Net SellingCFTC
Speculator sentiment: Net long, largeCFTC

Commercial hedgers are net short 262,903 contracts while large speculators are net long 225,853 — the two groups are structurally on opposite sides, so the week-on-week change matters more than the level.
Open interest stands at 412,800 contracts, a change of 2,901 on the week.
CFTC positioning is published weekly with a lag; this reading is as of 2026-09-22.
Positioning contributed 10 points.

Group	Net position	3-year low	3-year high	COT index (0–100)
Commercial hedgers	-262,903	-339,706	-90,428	31
Large speculators	225,853	71,433	315,390	63

CFTC Commitments of Traders (legacy, futures only), GOLD - COMEX (code 088691), from the CFTC public reporting API

COT index = where the current net position sits inside its own 3-year range (0 = lowest, 100 = highest), so each commodity is compared with itself.
Weekly change in net positioning: +0.8% of open interest (412,800 contracts).
CFTC report of 2026-09-22 (6 days old).

The evidence presents a mixed picture for gold. Commercial hedgers remain net short while speculators hold significant net long positions but have reduced exposure recently. The price is in a downtrend and below the 200-day EMA, with technical indicators showing no clear trend.

Type	Point
Supportive	Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East increasing safe-haven demand
Supportive	Strong investment demand from China and India
Risk	Hawkish Federal Reserve policy leading to higher interest rates
Risk	Strengthening U.S. dollar reducing gold's appeal

The horizon the analysis is framed over is 4-8 weeks.

Institution	Forecast	Horizon	Published
Goldman Sachs	$4,900.00	End 2026	2026-09-23
J.P. Morgan Global Research	$6,250.00	End 2026	2026-09-15
HSBC	$4,523.00	2026	2026-09-15
Bank of America	$4,360.00	2026	2026-09-15
UniCredit	$4,700.00	End 2026	2026-09-15
Wells Fargo	$4,950.00	End 2026	2026-09-15
Morgan Stanley	$5,200.00	End 2026	2026-09-15

Third-party material, attributed to the source named on each row

7 institutions published a forecast in the last 60 days; median 4,900, +16.9% from the current price.
These are published figures of the institutions named, gathered by web research; Midaris does not make price forecasts. Where only the month was known the 15th is used.

Date	Headline	Source	Tone
2026-09-28	Gold and silver prices fall sharply as higher bond yields weigh on metals	cnbc.com	negative
2026-09-27	Gold and Silver Price Forecast: Metals Slide as Oil Fuels Fed Fears	fxempire.com	negative
2026-09-27	Northern Star shares pop as Australian gold miner rejects $27-billion takeover proposal	cnbc.com	neutral
2026-09-27	Gold Falls on Expectations of Higher for Longer Fed Rates	wsj.com	negative
2026-09-26	My Biggest Bet: 3 Dividend Investments Boosted By 2 Major Macro Tailwinds	seekingalpha.com	neutral
2026-09-26	Bitcoin Surges 36% Since August 18 While Gold and Stocks Remain Stagnant: A Shift in Correlation?	247wallst.com	neutral
2026-09-25	Gold is throwing out the old rulebook	kitco.com	neutral
2026-09-25	Wall Street split on gold price path after drop below $4,300, Main Street maintains bullish majority as jobs take center stage	kitco.com	neutral
2026-09-25	Gold caps weekly loss as Fed bets, 5.2% yields limit rebound - Kitco PM Report	kitco.com	negative
2026-09-25	Gold's $4,300 support faces another test next week as bond yields surge and jobs data looms	kitco.com	negative

Third-party material, attributed to the source named on each row · Collected through GLD as a proxy for the commodity

12 relevant stories: 1 positive, 6 negative, 5 neutral (net -71%).
Tone describes what each story reports for supply, demand and the market for Gold, not a view on the price.

Company	Ticker	Exposure	How	When the price rises
Newmont	NEM	Direct	Largest gold miner; revenue moves with the gold price	revenue rises
Agnico Eagle Mines	AEM	Direct	Gold producer (Canada, Finland, Mexico)	revenue rises
Barrick Gold	GOLD	Direct	Gold and copper producer	revenue rises
Wheaton Precious Metals	WPM	Direct	Streaming: buys future production at a fixed cost per ounce	margin widens
Franco-Nevada	FNV	Direct	Royalties and streams on gold mines	royalty income rises
Signet Jewelers	SIG	Indirect	Jewellery retailer; gold is a raw-material cost	input costs rise
Caterpillar	CAT	Indirect	Mining equipment; miners spend more when prices are high	equipment demand tends to rise

Midaris curated reference table

Direct: the company produces or sells Gold, so its revenue moves with the price. Indirect: Gold is a cost, or demand for the company’s products depends on it.
This table describes how each company is exposed. It is not a list of companies to buy or avoid, and exposure is only one of many drivers of a share price.

Criterion	Weight	Points	Measured
Futures positioning (COT index)	20	10	hedgers index 31, speculators index 63, weekly change +0.8% of OI
Price strength	10	2.50	90 sessions -7.3%, 1 year +2.4%, 14% up the 1-year range
Momentum (EMA200, ADX, RSI)	25	6.70	-4.2% vs EMA200, ADX 16.3 (-DI above +DI), RSI 33.7
US dollar (20 sessions)	5	1	Dollar Index +1.7% over 20 sessions
News balance (14 days)	10	0	12 stories: 1 positive, 6 negative (net -71%)
Third-party forecasts	15	15	7 institutions, median 4,900 (+16.9% vs price)
Fundamental balance (own supply / demand data)	15	10.40	SPDR Gold Shares (GLD) gold in trust, tonnes 1,054.6 tonnes (+12.4% vs 5-year average) — balance 0.7

Seven criteria with fixed weights (COT 20, price 10, momentum 25, dollar 5, news 10, forecasts 15, fundamental balance 15), each scored with fixed zones and applied identically to every commodity. The fundamental balance reads the commodity’s own official supply and demand data (US inventories, physical ETF holdings, USDA balance sheets, exchange stocks) against its own history.
Every criterion had the data it needs this run.
All values are computed by code from the data feeds; the same data always gives the same score.

Key takeaways

Gold prices have declined recently, trading below the 200-day moving average amid a stronger U.S. dollar and rising Treasury yields.
Commercial traders remain net short, while speculators hold net long positions but have trimmed exposure.
Supply constraints and strong investment demand from China and India support prices, alongside geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. Upcoming U.S. economic data and Federal Reserve minutes may influence market direction.
Overall, the evidence is balanced with factors both supporting and pressuring gold prices.

Where it lags

Hawkish Federal Reserve policy leading to higher interest rates
Strengthening U.S. dollar reducing gold's appeal

What to watch

Next weekly CFTC positioning update (last reading 2026-09-22)

How to read this

The score sums seven criteria with fixed weights: futures positioning (COT index, 20), price strength (10), momentum (25), the US dollar (5), the balance of news (10), published third-party forecasts (15) and the commodity’s own fundamental balance from official supply and demand data (15). Each is scored with fixed zones; a criterion without enough data is left out and the total rescaled. Positioning comes from the weekly CFTC report and is published with a lag. Nothing here is a price forecast of Midaris or investment advice.

This report was generated by AI from the data sources listed above. It is research and education, not investment advice, and not a recommendation on any security.

Figures come from licensed market-data providers and official public data (CFTC positioning, EIA inventories) taken directly from the agencies; recent context comes from AI web research; all commentary is AI-generated and may contain errors or omissions. Verify against primary sources before relying on it.

This is what Midaris produces.

Every report type has a sample like this one — real output, not a mock-up. During early access, new accounts receive starter credits by invitation.

Create your account All ten samples

Market status7 rows

Technical readings4 rows

US dollar context3 rows

Futures positioning (CFTC)3 rows

Futures positioning — COT index (3 years)2 rows

Catalysts and events

What supports the reading and what works against it4 rows

Third-party forecasts7 rows

News (14 days)10 rows

Companies affected by Gold7 rows

How the score is built7 rows

Key takeaways

Where it lags

What to watch

How to read this

This is what Midaris produces.